Maggie's Farm

South African food production tracks with weather, but has doubled since the end of apartheid, with a record export value in 2025. However, South African agriculture is dependent on fertilizer, especially for maize. Fertilizer shortages are just another unintended consequence of the U.S. attack on Iran.

James: First, Feb. 28 is late summer when the large majority of the fertilizing has already been done.

The 2025-2026 season is expected to be above average.

James: With whatever inventories South Africa had on hand plus whatever was in transit it is doubtful the closing of the Strait of Hormuz has created any problem at all for southern hemisphere agriculture.

That's not the way it works. People are already planning for the next planting season, which means contracts for fertilizers, the cost of which is spiking.

James: Nitrogen fertilizer, the only fertilizer exported in any significant amount by Gulf countries, is the fertilizer with the most excess global production capacity

It's called supply and demand. If supply is reduced, and demand stays the same (or rises), then the price increases.

More people visit France or Spain than the United States, even though they are much smaller countries. Per capital, France gets seven times the number of tourists, while Spain gets ten times the number. So, a lot of people do go to France and Spain.

Ulithi: Are you implying that since " a lot of people do go to France and Spain" these so called "no-go" zones are much ado about nothing

The Betteridge headline was "Is Europe Ending Up as One Big No-Go Zone?" We're saying that "go" contradicts "no go". People "go" to France. Fewer people "go" to the United States (which has a much higher violent crime rate). If you were to say that there are some areas that people avoid, well there are certain sections of New York, Major, that I wouldn't advise you to try to invade.

James: There is no claim in the article that the whole of any European country was a no-go zone, or that any would become such overnight.

"Is Europe Ending Up as One Big No-Go Zone?" By Betteridge, the answer is no.

James: But it would seem difficult to deny that the problem is much worse now than it was 10 years ago. And that it was worse 10 years ago than it was 20 years ago. And worse 20 years ago than it was 30 years ago.

The homicide rate in France is lower than 30 years ago. And it is much lower than in the United States. What with political instability, xenophobia, and high rates of violent crime: "Is the United States Ending Up as One Big No-Go Zone?" Feel free to give Rick Blaine's answer.

Rusty: He uses homocide statistics when talking about France, but compares that to violent crime stats making it seem like the US is actually more dangerous.

Definitions of violent crime vary (for instance, France include crimes of neglect in their statistics), so homicides make a good proxy for determining levels of violence.

Rusty: We can use New York City vs Paris as a quick comparison.

While New York City has made great strides against crime, their homicide rate is still several times that of Paris. In 2024, the number of homicides "explosé" in Paris to 34, still a far lower homicide rate than New York City. (Now do Oklahoma, not just the city, but the entire state.)

Rusty: the US homicide rate has also drastically fallen over the last 30 years

It has indeed. However, the US still has a much higher homicide rate. (The drop implies a common cause, such as demographic changes.) Regardless, it is evidence that France is not "Ending Up as One Big No-Go Zone", or at least less so than New York City or even the entire United States.

LA Dave: 68% of the U.S. homicides were committed by illegal aliens.

Huh? We are always open to new information, so please provide a reliable source for your claim.

You may want to look at the homicide rate in Cabot Cove, Maine, reportedly 150 (per 100,000). Some have speculated that a local and beloved amateur sleuth (or someone close to her) must be a serial murderer. But the local sleuth has never been charged, much less convicted of any crime.

Rusty: Only a liar would look for a proxy when a direct comparison is readily available.

But you don't actually provide what you say is "readily available". You might try a citation to a primary source.

If the Betteridge claim is that "Europe Ending Up as One Big No-Go Zone", then we offered two lines of contradictory evidence. The most direct evidence is that people "go" to France in very large numbers. That directly contradicts the claim. We also provided evidence that violent crime is lower in France than in other countries such as the United States. If violent crime is a determinant of no-go countries, then the United States would have to be included.

Assistant Village Idiot hit on the fundamental point, "A very few neighborhoods account for most of the homicides in America." The same is true in France. If you were make Rick Blaine's claim, then it would be supportable. There are some places in New York City and some places in Paris you probably don't want to go.

Rusty: The article does not describe a “no-go-zone” as a place where people do not go.

Hahaha. Retreating into the semantics of redefinition. Good luck with that.

No-Go Area : an area that is dangerous or where people are not allowed to go.