|
Maggie's FarmWe are a commune of inquiring, skeptical, politically centrist, capitalist, anglophile, traditionalist New England Yankee humans, humanoids, and animals with many interests beyond and above politics. Each of us has had a high-school education (or GED), but all had ADD so didn't pay attention very well, especially the dogs. Each one of us does "try my best to be just like I am," and none of us enjoys working for others, including for Maggie, from whom we receive neither a nickel nor a dime. Freedom from nags, cranks, government, do-gooders, control-freaks and idiots is all that we ask for. |
Our Recent Essays Behind the Front Page
Categories
QuicksearchLinks
Blog Administration |
Tuesday, November 1. 2011Doc's brave blogging experiment continues
Anyway, despite the government's threat to seize Bird Dog's house as collateral against the impending law suits for the 'moral aggrievature' and 'mental discombobulance' this has caused, I'm going to courageously plunder on. I figure if I'm brave enough to risk Bird Dog's home, then he should be too. To recap, in case you didn't read the above link, the article I'm writing addresses the three types of global warming 'deniers' out there: — Those who deny the earth is warming through natural means Also, I keep reading articles that either mention a whole bunch of now-disproved AGW items, but don't actually explain why they were discredited, or articles that elaborate at great length on a few items, whereas a tidy encapsulation would do. And no article I've seen attempts to cover the whole spectrum of bullet points, tidy encapsulations and all. So it was left for me to do the dirty deed. However...
Then along came Bronson. Ted, that is, who suggested I give credit where credit is due and highlight the groups who are getting rich (monetarily or politically) off this delicious scheme, and that reminded me of the consequences of their actions, and how I hadn't elaborated on my prior usage of the word criminal in the article. Below the fold, I have now done so.
Update: Jerry left a comment in a different thread and mentioned the "record-breaking" storms (rain, snow, hail, molten lava) that are continually decimating entire populations due to your neighbor's SUV, so I also covered that. What prompted Jerry's remark was this eye-catching headline I had posted: Historic October Snowstorm To Hammer Northeast Historic! Yikes! I guess those And, of course, the article never mentions anything more about just why it's 'historic', so you look around the page and finally dig up a "Rarity of October Snow" link and there, down in paragraph #498, is the last time there was such an early snowfall in the area: 1979. Historic! Update 2: Hot Air came out with an article yesterday that reminded me of another aspect to cover. It's so seductive that Bird Dog couldn't stop himself from posting it in the morning links, but, as I'll point out, there simply couldn't be a worse strategy. The full draft of my article is here. Below is what I added. Record-breaking Records It would be fun to plot a graph of all the times terms like "historic" and "record-breaking" have been used in weather-related articles over the past 30 years, then watch how it started to spike in the early 2000's when AGW came of age. It's a classic, and effective, tactic. The only thing they're leaving out is from when. Usually, the last 20 to 50 years. Just long enough so that it seems like some kind of 'record' has been set, and thus 'broken'. "Hot August 15th Breaks Record — Local Scientist Blames Global Warming!" screams the Blatfield Daily News. Then, down in paragraph #23, it notes that the previous Blatfield record for August 15th was in 1975. Before that, 1931. Before that, 1893. Record-breakers, the lot of them. The bottom line is that somewhere in the world a weather record is 'broken' every single day of the year. Along the same lines is the general spin any good writer can put on an article, and especially with selected quotes. "Yep, this here global warmin' will prob'ly decimate our crops, starvin' mah whole family to deeth," said local farmer Ernest Sawback. See and hear "will probably" enough times and eventually it just becomes will. But getting back to our theme, we should expect to see more and more records being broken, but only from a geologic point of view. Let's look at decades, rather than years. Over the next 50 decades, the average temperature of each decade will slowly rise, with dips where it cools a bit below average, and spots where it rises above, but the overall line we draw through them all will be a gradual rise culminating in Greenland's rebirth as a nation. Driving Forces The reason it's so hard to fight the AGW movement is because it's widely divided into three camps, and without much overlap. In one corner are the 'pure' environmentalists; meaning, there's nothing political or monetary in their actions. They're just doing it for good ol' Ma Earth and Auntie Gaia. This could generally be broken down into the people who have been convinced by the 'science' of AGW, and those who just buy it because that's what the media says. Imagine how many people out there believe it's true and have never read a single article on it. Not in the paper, not online. See it on the TV news, read the same headlines year after year, and there's simply no reason to. And then there are the capitalists. Ironically, the usual term bandied about is socialist, but that's misleading because most of what's going on today, such as carbon offset trading, is nothing but sheer, raw capitalism in its purest form. Where the 'socialism' angle comes up is in regards to Africa and the bucketloads of money being poured into it, but, again, it's just a means to a monetary end. If they actually cared about the people, they'd be sending tangible goods and engineers, not depositing a big check in the local king's Swiss bank account. I've seen estimates that 90% of it is gone by the time it hits the street. If these people were actual Socialists, such shenanigans would not be tolerated. And then you have the ideologues who believe it simply because it's part of the Democratic Platform. These are the people least likely to be reading an article like this, because the last thing they want is to be shown their vaunted party could be wrong on any issue, much less this one. They'll sound like 'concerned environmentalists' in their passionate screeds, but their ultimate goal is scaring people into voting Democratic. I suppose the obvious tip-off would be the usage of the word Republicans in the article. If their ultimate goal is political, they'll have to name the enemy at least once. So that's the problem. On one hand, you have ardent believers for whatever reason, and on the other you have people who might very well know it's all bullshit, but the actual truth is irrelevant when faced against political power or the almighty dollar. And the money people are going to be extremely tough to even slow down, much less stop. If you've heard of the Euros wanting to impose a carbon tax on the international airlines, then you know this nice little revenue generator is doing nothing but gaining steam. And since everybody makes money on these carbon credit deals — since there's zero expenditure, outlay or risk — they're not going to want to slow it down for any reason, and will fight any effort to do so tooth and nail — and the legal equivalents thereof. The Travesties This isn't just a case of "Oh, those crazy AGW kooks are at it again!" There are serious consequences to their actions. That is, if you call entire nations being destroyed a 'consequence'. The island nations in the South Seas have now been officially informed by the U.N. that, indeed, their low-lying islands are soon be lost to the ever-rising seas due to the melting ice caps, and they'd better start making evacuation plans. That is, if you consider a personal visit by the United Nations Secretary-General as 'official'. As such, they're now abandoning long-term plans for their respective nations. They're starting to make moving plans. These nations' futures are being destroyed by a hoax. When I used the word 'criminal' in the preface to this article, this was one of the things I was thinking of, as is the following.
And you just know all kinds of pockets are being lined along the way. After all, the money was contributed by rich nations, so it's easy to be free with it and spread it around, all the while siphoning off a tiny bit at every step. I address the following to the people perpetrating this crime against humanity: Before you say, "Oh, it's Africa — they're used to such hardship!", there's a point to be made here. Imagine there's no countries. It isn't hard to do. No need to kill or die for. And no religions, too. Got the picture? Strip away all boundaries and convictions and just view every person on the planet from a humanistic point of view for once in your life. Denying this part of humanity electricity is keeping them in the literal Dark Ages. It's not just that you're keeping them a century back. You're keeping them centuries back. You should not want that on your tombstone. Framing The Debate The single biggest pit that our side falls into is the "It hasn't warmed in 10 years!" claim, which is identical to the "record-breaking!" silliness. Who refers to years when dealing with climate on a global scale? Not to single it out, but a recent article on Hot Air was titled: Surprise! No warming in last 11 years In other words, if suddenly the earth actually does warm up over the next few decades, then man-made global warming is real? Framing the argument that way is a horrific error in logic, destined to lose, and yet you see it everywhere. Anthony Watts over at Watts Up does it, Tom Harris at Climate Science does it, Doug Ross at Daily Bayonet does it, and now here's Ed Morrissey of Hot Air doing it. Regardless of what he then goes on to say in the article, he's now framed the debate that way. As long as the global temperature doesn't go up, then AGW is a hoax. As long as. As I hope I've shown, the only way to debate this issue is to quickly agree that the earth is warming in general, then bring up whether or not it's man-made, then point to the geological record. Anyone still arguing at that point isn't worth the time or trouble. They either have an agenda to fulfill or they're outright zealots, and either way they're not going to be shaken from their anointed path by mere words and graphs.
Posted by Dr. Mercury
in Hot News & Misc. Short Subjects, Our Essays
at
10:10
| Comments (27)
| Trackbacks (0)
Trackbacks
Trackback specific URI for this entry
No Trackbacks
Comments
Display comments as
(Linear | Threaded)
It's minor, but what about a discussion of "May, Might, Could" reporting?
We frequently see articles which scream "Recent Study Indicates Bubble Gum Causes Liver Spots" Then we read the article and see that in some study, the test groups indicated a 4% increase in liver spots by those who chew bubble gum versus those who don't. Since this is just outside the standard deviation of the test, the article makes the statement "bubble gum COULD cause liver spots" without ever discussing the other factors. At this point, it no longer matters. The link is made because most people don't get past the headline and for those who read the article, the word "could" becomes synonymous with "will". I know "MMC" is related to your coral discussion in the article. Bulldog -
I'll get to your comment in a sec, but in the meantime, have you heard that black licorice will kill you? Sorry, I meant to say "might", as in "might kill you -- if you want to take your chances, you fool." It's just a shame what mayhem these big candy manufacturers are allowed to get away with, no doubt due to buying off their local government representative. I say, Occupy Big Candy! (I get Hershey's) Okay, I added this near the end of the 'Record-breaking' section: QUOTE: Along the same lines is the general spin any good writer can put on an article, and especially with selected quotes. "Yep, this here global warmin' will prob'ly decimate our crops, starvin' mah whole family to deeth," said local farmer Ernest Sawback. See and hear "will probably" enough times and eventually it just becomes will. That ties in nicely, and thanks for the mention. The coral example is a lesson unto itself. It's 'misdirection' in its truest form -- because it actually has a director. Sneaky bastards. I am so off black licorice. Damn. I really liked it, too.
Nobody told me. Oh wait, http://www.livestrong.com/article/409415-is-black-licorice-healthy/ I'm back on it. You really scared me for a second, you evil, misleading blogger. And they say journalists are bad! This is turning out to be quite the day. First, Tom claimed he was smarter than the United Nations, and now you're claiming you're smarter than the FDA.
By the way, if you'd like to change your site handle, just let me know. I think "Dead Man Walking" is available. I was waiting for something like that so I could send this:
http://www.livestrong.com/article/319157-health-effects-of-black-licorice/ and this http://www.livestrong.com/article/334255-health-effects-of-eating-black-licorice/ when it comes to journalism, it's all about the story you want to tell. It's also about whether or not you have your mind made up, apparently. Finally, there is the "beer and black licorice diet", which I think I'll have to start testing. Sounds like a winner. http://www.spokesmanreview.com/allstories-news-story.asp?date=052504&ID=s1522257
#1.1.1.1.1
Bulldog
on
2011-11-01 14:57
(Reply)
>Finally, there is the "beer and black licorice diet"
If you can work bacon into it, Glenn Reynolds might give you a link. Breath smells like beer, teeth black from the licorice, skin smells like pig fat -- that's a combo that's hard to resist! Hey Merc,
I remember black licorice "plugs" when I was a 'youngin' (circa 19-oh-55). Loved it! Now, when I wish to recapture the past I enjoy an occasional Balck Sambuca with my Guinness. Don't know about the breath, though. (Bacon?..enjoy that with peanut butter and toast). The Canuck
#1.1.1.1.1.1.1
Garry
on
2011-11-01 19:57
(Reply)
Gar - At least, used to enjoy it with peanut butter. Most peanut butters are going up between 30 and 40% next week due a bad harvest, no doubt due to that "global weathering" I keep reading about. My coffee jumped from about $9 a jar to $13 recently, again due to the perils of global weathering.
Global weathering: Is there anything it can't do! Merc,
"Global weathering". Great descriptive. That'll throw them off the scent for a while. BTW, I'm a believer as well. I believe that AGW is the biggest hoax and SCAM ever foisted upon the 'modern world'. It is an OUT AND OUT THEFT of taxpayers' $'s and is nothing but a transfer of a nation's (our) wealth amongst the 'usual suspects'. The RAGs (RevAlGore et al) should be in jail for fraud. Let's start with the revoking of RAG's Nobel Prize. That would be inconvenient to "their" cause. Then I'll know the "collective world wisdom" is on the right track. Have "Bernie-Boy" Madoff make room for a coupla more room mates. Besides RAG, we can add that Pakistani (locomotive) engineer who headed the IPCC, to the lease. You may complete the list! Just sayin'.
#1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1
Garry
on
2011-11-01 20:36
(Reply)
"You may complete the list!"
I'm not sure if my computer has enough pixels. :) Steve - Damn good question. I also used "items", and the desktop publisher/webmaster inside of me wants to call them "bullet points".
As I see it, "meme" is journal-ese for "theme", like "lede" for "lead" and "graf" for "graphic". A "trope" is like a platitude, a literary device, something hauled out to act as a foundation block in an argument, but often as empty and vapid as a Liberal's child's daydream. So, the meme is the theme, the overarching goal, supported in part by tropes and other literary devices. Sometimes even logic on a wild day. So I was viewing them as kind of the same. But you're right, that's getting kinda far out there, and I don't really like using lingo like 'meme', so I've changed both usages to something else. Even managed to sneak a "bullet points" in there. And thanks. I appreciate literary corrections and suggestions just as much as actual content. quickly agree that overall the earth is warming,
Prove it. Plain, simple language, prove that the Earth is warming. Not you so much, but anybody with a PhD after their name. then bring up whether or not it's man-made If you can't prove that the Earth is warming, then the discussion of anthropogenic or natural causation isn't necessary. More on this later. then point to the geological record Which would prove what? That there are natural variations in carbon cycle? That temperature increases are not directly correlated with carbon cycles? That temperature increases may coincide with solar cycles? That the monotonic function in crunching data sets can show either increases or decreases in combination with other distributive data sets? I'm always amused by the AGW alarmists who categorically state that man causes 2.3% of the total amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide. What about the other 97.7% of the carbon in the atmosphere? If non-man made carbon was at 100% and man made adds 2.3% then shouldn't the total be 102.3%? :>) The Maldives were the island change you were thinking of that is supposedly sinking into the sea. Which it isn't. And won't. Want to know why? Displacement. Even if every single bit of sea ice on the surface of the ocean melted, it wouldn't affect anything - in fact you might even see a decrease in water height if you add in factors like water vaporization. That section of Hong Kong in the IPCC report that proved the ocean water was rising? Turns out that those buildings are built on a subduction fault and...well, mud. There ain't no bedrock to attach to or sink pilings into. Engineers have figured a way around it and the fix worked - no more sinking - whoopsie. I don't think civilians, or scientists for that matter, appreciate the sheer size and dynamics of the atmosphere. I don't think civilians or scientists for that matter consider the largest source of energy we have - the sun and how it's various cycles affect everything. Want proof? Isn't it strange that the Stradivarius violins were made from dense wood as a result of the Maunder Minimum - the trees grew slower and the core wood became denser. Antonio Stradivari was born a year before the Maunder Minimum. Coincidence? I don't think so. The simple truth is that the subject is way too complicated to even begin to construct one iota of truth one way or the other. That doesn't mean we should stop studying our climate and the changes it goes through - quite the contrary. What we can't do, as civilians and scientists, is make conclusions on small sample sizes, flawed collection techniques and flat out guessing what's what. Tom -
"Prove it. Plain, simple language, prove that the Earth is warming." Lots. Of. Graphs. Around. "Which would prove what?" Well, it- "That there are natural variations in carbon cycle?" Well, I never said anything about- "That temperature increases are not directly correlated with carbon cycles?" Well, I never actually correlated- "That temperature increases may coincide with solar cycles? I mean, I started to men- "That the monotonic function in crunching data sets can show either increases or decreases in combination with other distributive data sets?" Lots. Of. Graphs. Around. Core. Ice. Doesn't. Lie. "The Maldives were the island change you were thinking of" It's the whole area. The U.N. guy actually visited the Solomons. The Maldives are just the first to go, brave souls that they are. "Which it isn't." You must be a lot of fun at parties. "And won't." Wet blanket. :/ "Want to know why?" Well, actually, I just wrote this long article on- "Displacement. Even if every single bit of sea ice on the surface of the ocean melted, it wouldn't affect anything" That's the sea ice already in the sea. Ice above ground will displace water in the form of more water. "That section of Hong Kong" Ya know, I'd forgotten about that. Is it too 'small potatoes' to include? It wasn't much of a story, just picking the wrong tide sensor, but it certainly illustrates what bozos these guys can be. If a conspiracy by the IPCC had been proved, that'd be different. "The simple truth is that the subject is way too complicated to even begin to construct one iota of truth one way or the other." I know! I was just talking with this one blowhard know-it-all guy who was making blanket statements like "Which it isn't", and "It won't", like HE knows what's going on? I'm sure glad there are people like you around to help me keep these verbal miscreants in their place. "What we can't do, as civilians and scientists, is make conclusions on small sample sizes, flawed collection techniques and flat out guessing what's what." If "flat out guessing" was the third item, you could have left off the first two. :) Ice above ground will displace water in the form of more water.
No offense Doc, but that is...um...confusing. How does water displace water? I think I understand what you mean though. And that's a good point. There is a flaw though. Roughly 10.3% of the Earth's surface is covered in ice. During the Pleistocene Epoch glaciers advanced North and South to roughly the 37th parallel (37ºN) and 24th parallel (24ºS). This glaciation reached, at its zenith about 1.8 miles thick. This resulted in a 30 foot drop in sea level. If all the ice currently existing ice melts the claim is that the sea levels will rise 200 feet. During the Pleistocene Epoch, the sea only dropped 30 feet with massive ice sheets that were quadruple (or larger) the mass of the current ice sheets - how do they figure that less ice is going to create higher sea levels? It's that kind of "science" that drives me crazy. It's all guess work and bullshit - there I said it - bullshit. :>) "How does water displace water?"
When it drips off the cliffs into the ocean, it displaces the water that was there just a second before. Because of the kinetic energy that's built up in the downward-falling droplet, it doesn't 'merge' or 'gel' with the water, it actually displaces it. Plus, there's an alkalinity factor at play because the fresh water is combining with salt water, thus increasing the unwillingness of the two water entities to combine. And thanks. It's nice of you to ask. Nice - doesn't make any sense, but nicely done. :>)
#3.1.1.1.1
Tom Francis
on
2011-11-01 21:00
(Reply)
Thanks. :)
(A plethora of smiley faces break out as everyone appreciates the quick dancing on Doc's part) On the other hand, are you saying the water droplet dissolves in the ocean water? That no displacement is taking place at all? Pour a pitcher of fresh water into a salt water aquarium and the water doesn't rise? I am, however, willing to be fair and split the argument with you. I didn't want to use "displace" in the first place, but since it was the key buzzword of the paragraph, I felt somewhat obligated to. So that part's clearly my fault. On the other hand, you didn't sufficiently disprove my "alkalinity theory of nondisplacing liquids", so I'd say we're even at this point. I just hope we can still be friends after this. Carbon dioxide is about 380 parts per million in the atmosphere and humans contribute about 3% of that or 11 PPB. The AGW zealots claim they can dicker with a few PPB of CO2 in the atmosphere and control the climate. Don't believe it.
I gave it a whole two paragraphs in my article. Near the end. Barely. I took that 3% and 380 parts and turned them into a fairly instructive simile. Ironically, given that it's at the center of the whole brouhaha, there really isn't much to say about it. They like to claim it's 'catalytic', but hell, compared to the 97% that's water vapor, anything would be 'catalytic' in a chemical sense.
I do NOT deny that the earth or, rather, the global climate is warming. I am unaware of any irrefutable evidence that the entire global climate is warming.
I do NOT deny that IF the climate is warming (at all) it may be from natural influences (as has happened many times before) or caused by humans. Which is to say that I don't fit any of the three denier categories listed. What I do deny is that carbon dioxide is the agent of any climate warming that may be happening. Knucks - So you deny you're a denier? Sounds like some pretty damning evidence to me, buddy.
As for CO2, remember when Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines blew its stack? The one that took out the Air Force base? I later heard that it released as much CO2 into the atmosphere in 20 seconds as the entire history of mankind put together. And Pinatubo blew for hours. Ummm, the most fundamental premise being espoused, yet unspoken is that if something global is taking place (warming, cooling, volcanic activity, etc.), then the collective actions of governments (local, national, and the UN) are fully justified in controlling all of mankind's actions, even to the point of requiring a permit to build a fire, or to graze cattle, or to procreate, let alone what is being done at the collective level to meet market demands (generating power as an example).
It's the Marxist ethos writ large. I'll maintain it is my inherent right to create a life, build a fire in my backyard, or any of a myriad of other basic human activities, the well being of the planet as proclaimed by the intellegentsia/academics/politicians be damned. Guaman - You raise an interesting point, in the sense that it's not carved in stone anywhere that "thou must obey governments when it comes to big issues", yet it seems like such a 'given'. I'll see if I can weave that into my article somehow, and thanks for the mention.
Tom -
(for those of you scoring at home, we suddenly had an AGW zealot show up yesterday whose comments I decided to delete en masse at some point.) "Ah nuts - I always miss the good stuff. :>)" Sorry about that, although I've got some of Zach's better quotes set aside for my upcoming "Why They Should Bring Back 15th Century Insane Asylums" post. I'll make the lad an Internet star! Ol' Zach just doesn't understand the difference between a blog site and a forum. In a forum, if you want to start a big rant on something that's only partially related to the topic, you just open a new thread and everyone's happy. There's no such option on a blog site, so the rule of on-topicness applies. He was purposefully combing through every comment looking for things to fight about, aka 'trolling', never once being on-topic by discussing my upcoming article. This morning he was so desperate that he started attacking people in a week-old post -- the first post in this series. When you're commenting on week-old posts on backwater blog sites, it's time to reevaluate just how wisely one's spending one's time. I checked out his web site and it appears that this is what he does for kicks; purposefully goes to right-wing sites and tries to stir up the shit. He has a history of being banished from sites. He is, by his definition, a "clogger", i.e., someone who first fires up a web site so he can feel like he's part of the narrative, then ends up posting one post every two years, spending his online time 'clogging' up right-wing threads, all the while holding high the Flaming Sword of Truth to smite those deniers, skeptics and heretics who stand in his way. It's really quite the story, and I'm thinking of turning it into a children's book of bedtime stories and selling it to conservative parents throughout the nation. Kids love that flaming sword stuff. |

